Will interest rates still be high in 2024?
The Bankrate promise
In its January Mortgage Finance Forecast, the Mortgage Bankers Association predicts that mortgage rates will fall from 6.9% in the first quarter of 2024 to 6.1% by the fourth quarter. The industry group expects rates will fall below the 6% threshold in the first quarter of 2025.
Many experts predict interest rates will remain at their current level for most of 2024. This may mean that mortgage rates stay at or about the same level as now for many months before possibly starting to fall towards the end of 2024.
Projected Interest Rates in the Next Five Years
ING's interest rate predictions indicate 2024 rates starting at 4%, with subsequent cuts to 3.75% in the second quarter. Then, 3.5% in the third, and 3.25% in the final quarter of 2024. In 2025, ING predicts a further decline to 3%.
Projected Mortgage Interest Rate Forecast 2025
Overview: Predictions for 30-year mortgage rates in 2025 suggest a fluctuating pattern, starting at 7.66%-8.29% in January. Monthly variations are expected, culminating in a year-end rate of 6.54%, reflecting an overall decline from the initial point.
The ESR Group expects mortgage rates to decline in 2024, ending the year below 6 percent. The lower rate environment is expected to boost refinance volumes, which are already on the upswing, as evidenced by the recent uptick in Fannie Mae's Refinance Application-Level Index, to nearly double their 2023 levels in 2024.
The National Association of Home Builders believes that interest rates will be averaging 7.04% for the 30-year fixed in 2024 before dipping to 5.81% in 2025.
Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors, even told CNBC that he doesn't think mortgage rates will reach the 3% range again in his lifetime.
Even with interest rates as high as they are, it's still a great time to buy a house. The higher interest rates have priced some buyers out of the market, which means you could face less competition when you make offers.
According to their predictions based on recent data, Trading Economics anticipates the interest rate to descend to 4.25% in 2024 and 3.25% in 2025. Their forecast suggests that the Fed may need to reduce interest rates in response to a slowdown in economic growth and a decline in inflation.
How low will interest rates go in 2025?
Goldman said it expects 30-year mortgage rates will drop to 6.3% by the end of 2024, and fall slightly in 2025 to 6% as the Fed starts to cut interest rates. Previously, Goldman had expected the 30-year mortgage rate to be at 7.1% by the end of 2024 and at 6.6% by the end of 2025.
The latest Monetary Policy report says rates are expected to remain around 5.25% until autumn 2024 and then decline gradually to 4.25% by the end of 2026. The future of interest rates depends significantly on how quickly inflation drops – while wage growth and unemployment also play a factor.
A “good” mortgage rate is different for everyone. In today's market, a good mortgage interest rate can fall in the mid-6% range, depending on several factors, such as the type of mortgage, loan term, and individual financial circ*mstances.
Many forecasters expect rates to remain well under 7 percent this year. McBride expects them to drop all the way to 5.75 percent by the end of 2024. “Inflation has been coming down — and coming down faster than expected in recent months — which bodes well for mortgage rates,” says McBride.
These futures can also be short-term or long-term. Short-term interest rate futures have an underlying instrument with a maturity of less than one year, while long-term interest rate futures have an underlying instrument with a maturity of over one year.
We expect total home sales in 2024 to rise 5.0 percent to 5.00 million units, a slight upgrade from 4.96 million units in our prior forecast. We expect the 30-year fixed mortgage rate to decrease to 5.9 percent by the end of 2024, a tick higher than our prior outlook.
It is difficult to predict, but most banking economists are suggesting that rates will fall in late 2024 as the impact of the RBA's rate rises flows through to the economy and inflation begins to soften.
The current mortgage interest rates forecast is for rates to continue going down. After spiking to 7.79% last October, rates finally began to drop — managing a 1.19 percentage point decline in just 12 weeks. While there are no guarantees, our market expert recommends cautious optimism as we move through 2024.
The 10-year treasury constant maturity rate in the U.S. is forecast to decline by 0.8 percent by 2026, while the 30-year fixed mortgage rate is expected to fall by 1.6 percent.
Rates plummeted in 2020 and 2021 in response to the Coronavirus pandemic. By July 2020, the 30-year fixed rate fell below 3% for the first time. And it kept falling to a new record low of just 2.65% in January 2021. The average mortgage rate for that year was 2.96%.
Should I wait to have 20% down payment?
More Time Required To Save
For most people, saving for a down payment can take months, years or decades. Waiting until you reach the 20% down payment threshold may produce a huge opportunity cost. Delaying may result in significant costs to buyers due to rising home prices and soaring rents.
Like the name suggests, an assumable mortgage allows you to assume an existing mortgage, and that includes the rate. So if you want to buy a house from a seller who has a 4% interest rate, you could buy the house, assume the amount that is still owing on the mortgage and keep that 4% rate.
Unsurprisingly, bond buyers, lenders, and savers all benefit from higher rates in the early days.
“If the data continues to do what it has been doing, there's no reason rates couldn't go down into the fives, possibly even high-fours.” There are some caveats, though. For one, Graham mentioned that if there were a recession next year, then that could move mortgage rates even further below 5%.
Legally speaking, there's no limit to how many times you can refinance your mortgage, so you can refinance as often as it makes financial sense for you. Depending on your lender and the type of loan, though, you might encounter a waiting period — also called a seasoning requirement.
